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A sensitivity analysis of the New Zealand standard model of foot and mouth disease

Author(s) : K. Owen, M.A. Stevenson & R.L. Sanson

Summary :

Disease simulation models can be a valuable tool for planning a response to exotic disease incursions, as they provide a fast, low-cost mechanism for identifying the likely outcomes of a range of outbreak scenarios and disease control strategies. To use these tools effectively and with confidence, decision-makers must understand the simplifications and framing assumptions that underlie a model’s structure. Sensitivity analysis, the analytical process of identifying which input variables are the key drivers of the model’s output, is a crucial process in developing this understanding. This paper describes the application of a sampling-based sensitivity analysis to the New Zealand standard model (NZSM). This model is a parameter set developed for the InterSpread Plus model platform to allow the exploration of different outbreak scenarios for an epidemic of foot and mouth disease in New Zealand.
Disease simulation model – Epidemiology – Foot and mouth disease – Modelling – New Zealand – New Zealand standard model – Sensitivity analysis.

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