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Ex-ante economic analysis of animal disease surveillance

Author(s) : E.N. Tambi, O.W. Maina & J.C. Mariner

Summary :

This paper provides an ex-ante economic analysis comparing four alternative intervention strategies for the control and eradication of rinderpest against a scenario of no intervention in a cattle population similar in size to that of Ethiopia. The interventions were three different coverage levels of mass vaccination and one surveillance-based programme where vaccination targeted infected sub-populations. For each scenario, the disease impact was estimated using an open-population, state-transition SEIR (‘susceptible’, ‘exposed’, ‘infectious’, ‘recovered’) disease transmission model with parameter estimates developed for lineage 1 rinderpest virus. Projected economic surplus gains and costs estimated from the rinderpest eradication programme in Ethiopia were analysed using benefit-cost methods.

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